McBain
@mcbain
How are we feeling about Balaji’s prediction?
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borodutch
@warpcastadmin.eth
i love Balaji but US literally has never experienced hyperinflation this would be unprecedented — and i don't think that we are in unprecedented times yet maybe his definition of hyperinflation differs from the commonly accepted 50% per month i don't see US printing twice as many dollars as is already printed
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Caden
@cbxm
Apr 2020: money supply 4x'ed in a single month this is how fast it can happen https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
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McBain
@mcbain
bUt iNfLaTiOn wAs cOrPoRaTe gReEd (They absolutely took advantage but still)
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alex @ charterless.com
@alexstein
I mean - they 4x'd the supply in response to a global crisis and all we got was 8% inflation. Not sure I see them doing enough to get us to 50%... especially when >50% of the country is panicking about inflation.
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Caden
@cbxm
8% is overall inflation though, and the numbers are massaged by including goods and services that shift households feel greater pain than that, and 8% YoY is compounding (so effective change since Mar 2020 is closer to 30%) inflation pain could lead to a flight from USD, which could happen fast, and that's the point
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alex @ charterless.com
@alexstein
Okay, I'll bite for one round. I live on savings so I'm not indifferent to this, but we also need to check some doomerism here. People have predicted the collapse of the dollar for a century. Is this the big one, maybe, but there have been worse warning signs many times before.... 1/x
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alex @ charterless.com
@alexstein
2/x 1. BLS inflation. 2020: 1.23%, 2021: 4.7, 2022: 8. Multiplied across - net inflation of ~13%. Not good but not 30.
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