hey farcaster, if you need unbiased balanced perspective on the military coup happening in russia, ama

i'm russian and i'm in constant conversation with people on the hottest spots of the action

like, recast for visibility

let's stop disinformation and misunderstandings

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consensus is simple: people inside russia don't care, people outside root for putler to go away (with exceptions, of course)

whether it's prigozhin shooting putler or putler outing himself in a bunker — yeah, no one cares

military friends of mine have more respect for prigozhin than for shoigu

Consensus of people close to you in terms of sides?

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Are they currently bumping “The Ride of the Valkyries” from their loudspeakers as they march toward Moscow?

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you'll always see russia being "vocal" about how everyone there hates the west — but this is typical for an autocracy (see turkey, iran, north korea, etc)

in reality it's media propaganda and a small percent of bad apples that are ampified

most people in russia don't care about west, like west doesn't care about ru

> I can see a narrative building that Wagner was a US asset

yeah, i don't see this anywhere at the moment, the media is trying to either keep silent on the uprising or to free wagner from any blame

> How do they see the West and the U.S. in all this

as usual: most don't care, media calls "west" the enemy

So people in Russia don't care, but i assume they at least have some broad sentiments. 

How do they see the West and the U.S. in all this? I can see a narrative building that Wagner was a US asset, something like that.

And thanks for the great thread! 🧵

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russia has not been doing any successful deception tactics for centuries

don't overestimate its capabilities

whatever worked was an exception, not normal

the whole government in russia shat their pants (see how they desperately tried to "defend" by trenching the roads)

don't seak logic in russia's actions

What’s your opinion on this being another deception tactic like Russia’s been doing for centuries (appear weak to bait your enemy) 

e.g. operation uranus at stalingrad to fool the nazis

Perhaps they wanted to redeploy up at Kharkiv and made a big smokescreen while they were at it?

from your vantage point, how would you rate the 'wisdom of the crowd'?

https://polymarket.com/event/russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner

(this cast is late, prediction markets are in favor of Putin coming out on top)

one follow up question -- would you expect others try to do what Prigozhin has done?

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see "supercarcasters" for the wisdom of the crowd and why the crowd should be correct :))

i wouldn't say that the scenario was putler's win — prigozhin literally got to <100km to Moscow without any resistance except for some trenches dug

and putler had to pardon all of the people involved lol

as for whether others would try — predicting irrational russia is close to impossible, they don't make sense

wagner was the only capable military in russia, so probably noone else can even try — but i might as well be horribly wrong here

now we know that he won't take power

but if literally anyone replaces putler in power, russia will withdraw from Ukraine that moment

is prigozhin considered more or less hawkish than putin toward the west? any thoughts on how things would unfold beyond the immediate war w/ ukraine if he actually takes power?

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same as russia and Iran, russia and NK, russia and Africa

russia supports dictatorships around the world like ussr did with communism

when you're the only country that lives in shit because you're still an autocracy, it's difficult to justify this to your people

when more than one country suffers, they can justify

what's the connection between syria & russia?

is it a malicious relationship? 

does russia benefit in any way & if so, how?

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this is precisely what they are doing right now

If 25k wagner solders could legitimately threathen putin, could ukrainian do the same?

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this is true

public sentiment in russia is the same as usual — general public doesn't care

like, "walking around infantry in combat position and filming them" type of doesn't care

sometimes i feel that russians won't care about anything until it explicitly affects them in the moment

Is it true that Wagner took control of Rostov? What is the general public sentiment among everyday Russians?

if something looks like a coup, smells like a coup and quacks like a coup, yeah, it's a coup

25k+ armed men are walking towards kremlin as we speak to seize the power

in the meantime, government officials actively call this a coup

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anyone would be better than putler

putler coming back in 2012 was the worst thing that could've happened to russia

putler rewriting constitution to stay a dictator forever is just a continuation of that atrocity

What do you think of Navalny? (not in terms of probability of success, but in terms of desirability of success)

thanks for sharing that. 

btw russia is a really different state of mind

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corruption, nepotism and stealing

also "chernobyl" by hbo was very on point

how does the reactor blow up?

lies

now we're just waiting to see if prigozhin will replace this guy lol

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whatever russian media will tell people to think

which is probably "nothing happened" — so sentiment is entirely neutral

what’s the local sentiment about the coup

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only the time will show, there is no way to predict what will the next irrational move by russia be taken

Sooo, Prigozhin agreed to stand down and return to Ukraine.

I doubt that Putler is going to let him get off so easily. Is it likely that Prigozhin will find soon himself poisoned or defenestrated, and Wagner will be taken over by the state?

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we can now safely say the same as pre coup attempt, except russian forces had to withdraw a bit and uaf is gaining momentum

fast forward 30 days. 

what do you think is the state of russia and ukraine?