hey farcaster, if you need unbiased balanced perspective on the military coup happening in russia, ama

i'm russian and i'm in constant conversation with people on the hottest spots of the action

like, recast for visibility

let's stop disinformation and misunderstandings

from your vantage point, how would you rate the 'wisdom of the crowd'?

https://polymarket.com/event/russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner

(this cast is late, prediction markets are in favor of Putin coming out on top)

one follow up question -- would you expect others try to do what Prigozhin has done?

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as a resident in a country that's had 18-19 military coups to her name, i've grown weary of coups and generally don't want to root for them....but this is an extraordinary circumstance.

thanks for answering ser 🙏

as for whether others would try — predicting irrational russia is close to impossible, they don't make sense

wagner was the only capable military in russia, so probably noone else can even try — but i might as well be horribly wrong here

see "supercarcasters" for the wisdom of the crowd and why the crowd should be correct :))

i wouldn't say that the scenario was putler's win — prigozhin literally got to <100km to Moscow without any resistance except for some trenches dug

and putler had to pardon all of the people involved lol