If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

building /bracket | talking /greatbooks | ex-BCG, ex-PHD | poli + phil + econ

srs qn why do you take polling seriously now?

not-knowing ✹ 🍕-fan ✹ productive discomfort + idk ✹ Marseille / Singapore / Auvergne ✹ The Uncertainty Mindset (2020) ✹ now: vaughntan.org/now-ish

I don’t tend to believe that something that many people take seriously (many of whom are smart, experienced, and who put their career where there mouth is on this stuff) is wholly meaningless. There’s usually something there in such situations. 

But if the data contradicts it enough, I must adjust thinking…

it's been a few cycles in several countries where polling has been far off from "reality"

Having prediction markets as a counterpoint, it may be the last straw. (Bc it would be clear proof
that organized prediction is possible, just not in the form of polls)

accurate prediction (vs lucky guess) requires clear understanding of the underlying system mechanism tho

but what if there is no mechanism or if the part of the surface investigated has a fundamentally different structure from the interior

which would be more true the more heterogeneous the entity ...

May be hard to get access to that. We have to deal with the surface