I don't think big tech layoffs are because the companies got bloated, it's because rates went up. 

If the ROI (including opportunity cost of capital) on a marginal hire is positive they should be hired. 

As rates increase the opportunity cost of capital increases so this calculation changes.

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Marketing is just one way to grow. For some companies, so is building (or optimizing) product. 

Also, for mature companies, the goal probably shouldn’t be to accumulate talent. For startups/high growth companies the calculus is different.

Good analysis. It does seem like backwards logic, though: companies should be spending to accumulate talent during the bad times to heavily reinvest back into the product; consequently, they should spend free dollars for marketing the product during the good times.

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If you can retain top talent on lower salaries go ahead but I think it’s probably healthy to do a RIF and just focus in on the most profitable aspects of the business. Morale, retention, and future ability to hire will also probably be better if you bite the bullet on layoffs. 

But idk really, no personal experience

What do you think @scharf about cutting down salaries by x% instead of laying off x% workforce which will achieve the same economic savings but arguably higher net productivity?

Do you think the additional people were losing the company money?

anecdotally, i found google becoming bloated by the time I left two years ago after a 5 year stint there. (still love the company)

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For Elon I think the important thing is having ~his people~ working for him. Idk if he’ll be able to find good people that want to work for him though.

I think every big tech company does this which is why the profitable ones increased headcount

do you think any big tech co approached and measured hiring this way?

Right, both are true. 

Companies bloated themselves by making “luxury” hires in a time of cheap money (both investment and customer dollars)

Now that customers and investors are spending less, a lot of those folks look unnecessary at best, and like a drag on performance at worst.

personally think cause covid stigma was not to fire people, they got bloated and were unable to trim due to negative perceptions, so recent events are good cover to do the trimming you have been accumulating over the past few yrs.

Agreed. Also, in Tech any R&D spent is practically capex. When rates go up, you've got to be more careful.

Big tech orgs are unable to measure productivity and they hide behind the false axiom that "productivity is hard to measure". That's BS.

Start tracking outcomes, not # of people.

couple of other catalyst include changing consumer trends (as COVID back to normal) and drying up of venture capital.

The second and third order effects of interest rates rising dramatically off virtually 0 will continue to be felt for years. For our entire lives, they have been heading in one direction and that’s suddenly changed. https://i.imgur.com/7DD038H.jpg