Sasquatch テ on Warpcast

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https://opensea.io/collection/nouns

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Wilson Cusack pfp

It’s interesting to see people using this vote to re-litigate the fork as a mechanism. Saying “I don’t like the fork so let’s make it not work very well” seems odd https://www.nouns.camp/proposals/642?tab=activity

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Michael Gingras (lilfrog) pfp

Michael Gingras (lilfrog)

The most compelling case against this prop and the fork is how it affects the daos ability to claim non profit status as (and if) it transitions to a duna But yea, saying “arber bad” is a misunderstanding. The irony is folks want to lower the threshold so they can leave a duna nouns, but cannot, because doing so would harm the chances of the dao becoming a duna. My take is that if forking harms the chances of becoming a duna so severely, those in favor (foundation, wag, etc) should have made sure an alt minority protection mechanism was in place before going live with duna prop and pulling the fire alarm on fork

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krel pfp

wylin is right here afaik wag also have an idea to let minority holders leave vis proposal? not sure if publically communicated

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Sasquatch テ pfp

there was a long impromptu call in nouncil with a good amount of guests where wag discussed the alternative exit ideas and also offering fork 1 as a haven for anti DUNA folks to leave without having arb crowd join them. I'll try and publish the transcript by tonight

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Spencer Perkins pfp

Spencer Perkins

@spencerperkins.eth

Where are all these arbers you speak of? If they exist, would have thought they would vote this prop through 🤔

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Sasquatch テ pfp

A good # of community members will also arb/exit imo and that doesn't necessarily reflect on the vote. People won't make the decision until the snowball effect occurs. Even wag himself said he's not sure what he'd do given his belief on the damage it causes towards DUNA efforts in the future

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Spencer Perkins pfp

Spencer Perkins

@spencerperkins.eth

The average auction price since the last fork is above book value. If someone bought every Noun since the last fork with intent to arb they would lose ~77 ETH. The only holders who could walk away with any profits are from the last ~120 Nouns, the other ~1150 would be at a loss.

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Sasquatch テ pfp

This data doesn't contradict the issue of a snowball effect and more people leaving than expected because the treasury feels drained and the project ends up less exciting. I have never been a fan of any form of refund for Nouns. You are willingly buying into an experiment on the frontiers of tech

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Spencer Perkins pfp

Spencer Perkins

@spencerperkins.eth

This data shows that there are only ~120 profitable Nouns that could be forked. The average auction price for non-forked Nouns is ~42 ETH. This means, assuming a uniform exit distribution, on average those exiting would be doing so at a loss of ~36 ETH. There is no incentive to have a "snowball effect". Whether you are a fan or not, the minority protection from the fork existed when many members bought into Nouns, which was supposed to be usable in cases where they were fundamentally misaligned with the direction.

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Sasquatch テ pfp

the snowball effect incentive is that if you think noun prices are going significantly lower then it's better to exit now, even if you are not in profit if people think the project is going to 0 then emotions come into play and they will consider protecting their capital during a rare liquidity event, this happened last time where good people were exiting on secondary even if they didn't want to join the arbers in a fork. totally possible that less of that behavior exists this time but I am not confident agree with your last point, it exists/code is law/etc. but also I think the majority joined knowing it was set at 30% (tbf it was also 10% for some time in the past) and there was no guarantee that it would be lowered in the future. so I don't think it's fair to expect an easier exit either when you joined under those conditions

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