If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

One is poll aggregator, one is betting aggregator, frequented by people that are 1) heavily in crypto, and 2) heavily favor Trump bcs they think he will have a better impact for crypto. 

You cannot compare the two.

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If Trump actually wins decisively, would you change your opinion?

About the polymarket thing? Yes, I tend to rethink my opinions if confronted with facts, and him winning decisively would be facts (if not stolen election, of course) . I mean, I don't see a way that a win THAT decisive actually comes, so it's tough to even think about it. 

But IMO such a huge difference (what was it, 24 pts or sth similar) comes solely bcs people that are in crypto and pro Trump, are also more likely to bet in such an aggregator. Just my two cents, I don't have a source on that.

It's the same as asking a person from a landlocked country, that never left that same country, if they ever met a pirate.

Be specific.     

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First, I was DEAD wrong. Guess Farcaster and Reddit are echo chambers. It is what it is. 

Second, the way the numbers show is that far less people that voted for Biden voted for Harris.  20 million less people voted, as oppose to 2020. What are the reasons for that, I am not sure. 

I still think polymarket is heavily skewed, and betting results do not directly relate to voting results.

at time of writing Trump won popular vote by 4%; this feels quite far outside the margin for error on those polls -- curious for you thoughts?