skininthegame

I can’t quite put my finger on why yet, but I have a very bad feeling about prediction markets.

shaping the ideas that shape us /native /believein 🇵🇸

I’ll have to do some soul-searching but it probably boils down to “gambling bad”

been trying to wrap my head around:

1) does it matter that someone bets on the underdog because the potential payout is outsized, not because they believe they’ll win?

2) how is a "prediction market" different from sports betting? isn’t it just a fancy term to describe the same thing wrt other aspects of society?

if someone genuinely believes in the outcome they bet on, do you still feel as badly? some of questions i've been asking myself about prediction markets

if someone genuinely believes in the outcome they bet on, do you still feel as badly? some of questions i've been asking myself about prediction markets https://warpcast.com/nonlinear.eth/0x25785543

that said, i think sports betting is also bad, despite the fact that people often actually have conviction and can’t control the outcomes. 

it’s just a net negative on society. i can’t think of any benefits.

There's a small social benefit of connection imo. Have heard multiple stories where it's a nice forcing function to get together & socialize. 

Not saying that's a great thing but…its something…beneficial…

you probably don’t think about liquidity enough // it is what it is  // build value, not valuation

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reminds me of this tweet lol https://x.com/sillezzz/status/1559208830940200961?s=46&t=u8pItK-nu0TdtOG8jcLETA

lol. had the same realization after years of jiujitsu: this is all just an elaborate excuse for physical connection