skininthegame

I can’t quite put my finger on why yet, but I have a very bad feeling about prediction markets.

shaping the ideas that shape us /native /believein 🇵🇸

I’ll have to do some soul-searching but it probably boils down to “gambling bad”

stock market is a prediction market with tangible value (i actually own shares)

even @jacob’s essay where he talks about minting nfts as prediction markets feels better to me because there are other possible intentions like supporting artists 

prediction markets like polymarket are pure gambling

i'm not sure, all markets are essentially prediction markets

like, farcaster og token is a prediction market on future success of farcaster

the one argument i could see though is it just feels very spiritually unsound that people are betting on certain real-world events

been trying to wrap my head around:

1) does it matter that someone bets on the underdog because the potential payout is outsized, not because they believe they’ll win?

2) how is a "prediction market" different from sports betting? isn’t it just a fancy term to describe the same thing wrt other aspects of society?

if someone genuinely believes in the outcome they bet on, do you still feel as badly? some of questions i've been asking myself about prediction markets

it’s a hard question to answer. another case of “the medium is the message”. 

does the fact that a market exists and one side is winning make that outcome more likely to succeed?

does betting on one side make me more likely to work toward that outcome?

do i genuinely believe in X, or do i just own X stock?

that said, i think sports betting is also bad, despite the fact that people often actually have conviction and can’t control the outcomes. 

it’s just a net negative on society. i can’t think of any benefits.

if someone genuinely believes in the outcome they bet on, do you still feel as badly? some of questions i've been asking myself about prediction markets https://warpcast.com/nonlinear.eth/0x25785543

BDFL of Quilibrium, Eng @ Farcaster, ex-Coinbase, always opinionated, never hydrated

/quilibrium

"gambling bad" motivates me on so many levels 🙂