skininthegame

I can’t quite put my finger on why yet, but I have a very bad feeling about prediction markets.

shaping the ideas that shape us /native /believein 🇵🇸

I’ll have to do some soul-searching but it probably boils down to “gambling bad”

been trying to wrap my head around:

1) does it matter that someone bets on the underdog because the potential payout is outsized, not because they believe they’ll win?

2) how is a "prediction market" different from sports betting? isn’t it just a fancy term to describe the same thing wrt other aspects of society?

if someone genuinely believes in the outcome they bet on, do you still feel as badly? some of questions i've been asking myself about prediction markets

if someone genuinely believes in the outcome they bet on, do you still feel as badly? some of questions i've been asking myself about prediction markets https://warpcast.com/nonlinear.eth/0x25785543

💯

i know much of "thinking, fast and slow" has been debunked, but something that stuck with me: even for those aware of their own psychological biases, logical fallacies, etc. that doesn't make them immune. these forces work regardless. impossible to be both participant and impartial observer

it’s a hard question to answer. another case of “the medium is the message”. 

does the fact that a market exists and one side is winning make that outcome more likely to succeed?

does betting on one side make me more likely to work toward that outcome?

do i genuinely believe in X, or do i just own X stock?

that said, i think sports betting is also bad, despite the fact that people often actually have conviction and can’t control the outcomes. 

it’s just a net negative on society. i can’t think of any benefits.