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tldr (tim reilly)
@tldr
If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again
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not parzival
@alexpaden
these polls seem like the easiest way to manipulate public opinion 🙈
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Mike
@mrmike
Given that you don’t even need to hold those bets until the end they are an even cheaper way to manipulate public opinion than they first appear
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tldr (tim reilly)
@tldr
Good pt. Something to keep an eye out for. But that’s a game of chicken
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Mike
@mrmike
You’re right, but given the four days it took in 2020, it will be possible to remove those bets after every vote has been cast but before every vote has been counted. As it stands now the Kamala option might be very lucrative.
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tldr (tim reilly)
@tldr
If this were a certainty, wouldn't a rational bettor want to jump out just a little bit sooner than others, who would in turn want to jump out a little sooner themself... until you get to the expected behavior that people would jump out now if they believe this will happen? Or we're assuming bettors not rational?
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Mike
@mrmike
I think we’ll see backward induction but after votes have been cast. This is, of course, all dependent on an unproven idea that the goal is vote manipulation. We also can consider the ROI. Maybe they are OK with the loss. Having trump bets go from 60 -> 50 may be a better investment than traditional advertising.
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