If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

building /bracket | talking /greatbooks | ex-BCG, ex-PHD | poli + phil + econ

these polls seem like the easiest way to manipulate public opinion  🙈

Given that you don’t even need to hold those bets until the end they are an even cheaper way to manipulate public opinion than they first appear

Good pt. Something to keep an eye out for. But that’s a game of chicken

If this were a certainty, wouldn't a rational bettor want to jump out just a little bit sooner than others, who would in turn want to jump out a little sooner themself... until you get to the expected behavior that people would jump out now if they believe this will happen?

Or we're assuming bettors not rational?

You’re right, but given the four days it took in 2020, it will be possible to remove those bets after every vote has been cast but before every vote has been counted. As it stands now the Kamala option might be very lucrative.