If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

building /bracket | talking /greatbooks | ex-BCG, ex-PHD | poli + phil + econ

these polls seem like the easiest way to manipulate public opinion  🙈

Given that you don’t even need to hold those bets until the end they are an even cheaper way to manipulate public opinion than they first appear

You’re right, but given the four days it took in 2020, it will be possible to remove those bets after every vote has been cast but before every vote has been counted. As it stands now the Kamala option might be very lucrative.

Good pt. Something to keep an eye out for. But that’s a game of chicken

i meant polls with no backing given by news outlets since people use it like “how could you vote for this person, more than half the country thinks they’re (you’re) an idiot”

i agree that sounds problematic in reliability of the bets, why no lock in? the value of the bet placed changes based on time moving forward?