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Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
I find that polling and other types of political forecasting have lost meaningful predictive power but for what it’s worth models are showing Kamala Harris narrowing the gap with Trump and potentially moving past him. Trump had a huge advantage in 2016 which is that he was a novel figure. Americans love change, excitement, and the unknown and he fed that sentiment. Harris now ironically enjoys that to a greater degree since unlike Trump she’s never been president before. So despite the fact that she had been an underwhelming VP I would not count her out as a strong POTUS candidate.
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MJC
@mjc716
the paradox of political forecasting is that there will never be enough sample size to validate any model
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Snibb123.eth
@snibb123
What are your thoughts on prediction markets?
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Derek
@badadvicehq
Honestly, it still feels like a frenzy to me. I won't be surprised if she surpasses Trump though.
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AuntiePapi
@auntiepapi.eth
Same allure as Obama, but she’s also female. Seems like she got pigeonholed as a VP. Do you think if she was president and Biden was VP the whole thing would have been a: super crazy b: only trumps to lose? And man. Robert F Kennedy Jr. sheesh.
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LfECaa
@jtzlvt
the paradox of political forecasting is that there will never be enough sample size to validate any model
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