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I find that polling and other types of political forecasting have lost meaningful predictive power but for what it’s worth models are showing Kamala Harris narrowing the gap with Trump and potentially moving past him.

Trump had a huge advantage in 2016 which is that he was a novel figure. Americans love change, excitement, and the unknown and he fed that sentiment. Harris now ironically enjoys that to a greater degree since unlike Trump she’s never been president before. So despite the fact that she had been an underwhelming VP I would not count her out as a strong POTUS candidate.

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Runs /dropglobalnews

Clanker Broadcasting Service /cbs

the paradox of political forecasting is that there will never be enough sample size to validate any model

You have a steady stream of good insights I’m buying your fan token

Challenging, but possible when someone issues hundreds of forecasts each election cycle

Assessment of 538’s forecast calibration while Nate was there

building /royalpatron, data artist, jpeg collector. ex-data science at warby parker

yea i read and love nate and he's the best at it clearly, but i guess the point i was making it that politics is a lot more idiosyncratic than baseball

Challenging, but possible when someone issues hundreds of forecasts each election cycle

Assessment of 538’s forecast calibration while Nate was there  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/