Gray Tribe

Ethereum

I'd like an ongoing @polymarket series, like the quarterly fed one, for core asset reliabliity.

- Will Base censor a transaction in 2025?
- Will USDT depeg in 2025?

etc

should serve as an incentivized early warning system

One fun result--how would you direct public goods funding at this?

By betting on disaster!

If I bet $1k that USDT *will* depeg at 1% odds, I enable $99k of "no" bets, which serve as a bounty for anyone who knows something. Nice leverage.

Real World Ethereum 🌎 
building /daimo ✳️ 

Corollary: Polymarket would work better denom'd in a yield coin like sDAI or oracle (USD + treasury rate) instead of USDC. Betting on a sure thing at 99% odds to win a 1% return a year later does not work in zero-yield dollars.

BTC could work. ETH does not--would have to be stETH or rpETH.

Every asset has a benchmark return = ~0% for BTC, ~2% for ETH, ~4.5% for USD.

To correctly model probabilities near 0/100%, a prediction market must denon in the benchmark asset (= BTC, staked ETH, treasury USD).

Treasury USD has highest TAM by far.

or even ETH/BTC, depending on the amount of time needed to resolve

Curve has a couple tokens that could be interesting for this. scrvUSD pays yield from borrow fees. And the "strategic reserve" is an experimental exchange pool between USDC and USDT. Lower apy there, but minimal smart contract risk.

Curve has a couple tokens that could be interesting for this. scrvUSD pays yield from borrow fees. And the "strategic reserve" is an experimental exchange pool between USDC and USDT. Lower apy there, but minimal smart contract risk. 

https://crvhub.com/scrvusd

https://curve.fi/dex/#/ethereum/pools/factory-stable-ng-355/deposit