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✳️ dcposch on daimo
@dcposch.eth
One fun result--how would you direct public goods funding at this? By betting on disaster! If I bet $1k that USDT *will* depeg at 1% odds, I enable $99k of "no" bets, which serve as a bounty for anyone who knows something. Nice leverage.
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✳️ dcposch on daimo
@dcposch.eth
Corollary: Polymarket would work better denom'd in a yield coin like sDAI or oracle (USD + treasury rate) instead of USDC. Betting on a sure thing at 99% odds to win a 1% return a year later does not work in zero-yield dollars.
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or even ETH/BTC, depending on the amount of time needed to resolve
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✳️ dcposch on daimo
@dcposch.eth
BTC could work. ETH does not--would have to be stETH or rpETH. Every asset has a benchmark return = ~0% for BTC, ~2% for ETH, ~4.5% for USD. To correctly model probabilities near 0/100%, a prediction market must denon in the benchmark asset (= BTC, staked ETH, treasury USD). Treasury USD has highest TAM by far.
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