Gray Tribe

Ethereum

I'd like an ongoing @polymarket series, like the quarterly fed one, for core asset reliabliity.

- Will Base censor a transaction in 2025?
- Will USDT depeg in 2025?

etc

should serve as an incentivized early warning system

One fun result--how would you direct public goods funding at this?

By betting on disaster!

If I bet $1k that USDT *will* depeg at 1% odds, I enable $99k of "no" bets, which serve as a bounty for anyone who knows something. Nice leverage.

Real World Ethereum 🌎 
building /daimo ✳️ 

Corollary: Polymarket would work better denom'd in a yield coin like sDAI or oracle (USD + treasury rate) instead of USDC. Betting on a sure thing at 99% odds to win a 1% return a year later does not work in zero-yield dollars.

I think that’s how these work 😬

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market