✳️ dcposch on daimo on Warpcast

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✳️ dcposch on daimo pfp

✳️ dcposch on daimo

> huge things happen > 10 point polling gap appears between men and women > 40%+ shift with arab americans etc > … > everything cancels out perfectly. election is a precise toss up, down to the same handful of people in Pennsylvania again how?

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Just Build pfp

I've always found this interesting since its people outside of the US watching our political process play out. Wonder what they are seeing that made this swing the other way.

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Anon pfp

Comes down to Philadelphia. A very not corrupt one party city. Good god.

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Terry Bain pfp

I do not trust polymarket on this.

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Jason pfp

Almost plays out perfectly for news to overstate Kamala’s resurgence as people react to her interviews and policy decisions while the pendulum swings back in favor of Trump

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schorn.eth 🎩 pfp

schorn.eth 🎩

The simulator is messing with us.

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Vitalik Buterin pfp

Vitalik Buterin

Median voter theorem. If your chance of winning gets closer to 100%, it's theoretically optimal for you to start getting greedier on your policy asks; this increases your prize from winning, but your chance of winning also goes back down as a result.

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Christian Montoya 🦊 pfp

Christian Montoya 🦊

It's always a battle for the middle where each candidate endorses partisan positions to solidify their base and then has to walk things back to avoid losing the undecideds. DNC was all about pandering to the base.

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↑langchain 🎩 pfp

↑langchain 🎩

RFK’s actions post drop out will likely decide this - tho I think many have already moved over to Kamala. Few things swing this drastically to either side: - Debate performances - Ceasefire - Massive media gaffs

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Daikie.eth 🎩 pfp

Daikie.eth 🎩

A $700 million wager is not that much in the grand scheme of things. Polymarkets are way better than polls where people just fill out their opinion for free (or getting paid $0.04 on a lame ass survey) but it's not infallible. Nobody knows is the most likely outcome: aka 50/50 unless swayed by event changes. If trump got shot it woulda been 0/100 suddenly

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torndoaklose pfp

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zzz pfp

To be fair, if the skew on crypto is heavily male-centric then reasonably you could deduce that the majority of betters on polymarket are male. The female vote in the united states is massively underrepresented in this.

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두부맘🐻‍❄️ pfp

두부맘🐻‍❄️

There have been significant shifts among voters but opposing trends are balancing each other out keeping the election still very close

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Mico Pancho pfp

trump def gonna win

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Chu Minh Sang pfp

Make america great again

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