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✳️ dcposch on daimo
@dcposch.eth
> huge things happen > 10 point polling gap appears between men and women > 40%+ shift with arab americans etc > … > everything cancels out perfectly. election is a precise toss up, down to the same handful of people in Pennsylvania again how?
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@daikie
A $700 million wager is not that much in the grand scheme of things. Polymarkets are way better than polls where people just fill out their opinion for free (or getting paid $0.04 on a lame ass survey) but it's not infallible. Nobody knows is the most likely outcome: aka 50/50 unless swayed by event changes. If trump got shot it woulda been 0/100 suddenly
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