Geopolitics

There is a very narrow path in which the Iranian regime does not survive a direct confrontation with Israel, leading to the collapse of regional proxies (incl. Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, perhaps even the Syrian regime itself), but also to depriving China and Russia from influence in the Middle East.

If this could be combined with an even narrower path where Putin’s regime does not survive its lack of success over Ukraine, we could be looking at a very, very different geopolitical landscape within 2–3 years from what the doomsayers have been predicting regarding the erosion of Western influence

It’s a Hail Mary that bears significant risk in the throwing though—a lot of events have to go just right to get there, and one bad dice roll means WWIII

PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Aviator, diver, ETH maxi, nexialist | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

Founder @rivet (rivet.cloud) • Æxtropian Cypherpunk • Host @ WBRT (den.social) • e/acc • 🦇🔊

Who else do you expect would join the fight alongside Iran to turn this into a world war?

Russia is likely too stretched in Ukraine, China has ties with Iran but likely not to the point of entering an armed conflict against Western powers (which would presumably back Israel), North Korea may be a wildcard here but has a lot to lose from a direct confrontation. More likely in my view that each would supply weapons to Iran and turn this into a proxy war.

I also suspect the nuclear risk is overblown, first because it would spell the end of the regime in Tehran, second because they are likely not ready to weaponize and fire their fissile materials (see https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential).

Full-stack web3 developer, learn more about my projects here: https://github.com/tempe-techie

My best guess is: the regime is revealed to be a paper tiger, the population realizes that, and a coup ensues. Or, part of the leadership is taken out through military action, and reformists take advantage of the power vacuum.

Curious, how would Iranian regime not survive this? What would be the scenario? 🤔

Usually, having an outside enemy strengthens a regime (and support for it in its country).

300 $DEGEN

Impact

I'm tipping:
15 $DEGEN 
🍖x71 
via Abundance Ecosystem on /impact

/impact lets you earn curator rewards while supporting your favorite creators & builders on Farcaster

microsub.

I'm supporting you through /microsub!

38 $DEGEN

(Please mute the keyword "ms!t" if you prefer not to see these casts.)

I'm supporting you through /microsub!

109 $DEGEN

(Please mute the keyword "ms!t" if you prefer not to see these casts.)

The proxy war between US and China is coming to a head. US is sending 3000 more troops to the region where an estimated 40k troops currently are, along with a carrier group. Impressions seem that Iran is waiting to retaliate or afraid to retaliate. Either way, the hesitation isn't going unnoticed.

Apt analysis,  Western influence will be very pivotal to Isreal coming victorious. 

Imo I believe the groundwork is already done, Iran was just baited into giving justification for more action.

very interesting take. grateful that some voices here focus on this. I don't consume any media so I generally won't know what's going on, and that's how I thrive best.