Alex

@asenderling.eth

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2170 Followers

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@asenderling.eth

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@asenderling.eth

If the markets are recovering (but still down) because of a tariff pause, doesn't that validate that tariffs are bad? 🤔

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@asenderling.eth

The admin is lying and deceiving everyone trying to play this off as some kind of master plan. They are winging it, 10% across the board is still horrible, and there is no clear plan for anyone interested in onshoring/investing in America.

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@asenderling.eth

This just does not seem to be a well thought out plan https://x.com/mmcassella/status/1910037066597163524

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@asenderling.eth

This feels like a post-hoc rationale, given that there was no movement on any negotiations, the EU *just* announced reciprocal tariffs, and we're still keeping 10% across the board. Time will tell, but the confusion and instability will have significant ripples, and I'm not sure every country on that list is going to be cool with the 10% tariffs. Just really seems like this is all being improvised, and improvised quite poorly.

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@asenderling.eth

🙃 🙃 🙃 My brain is not wired to comprehend the level of retardation the president operates at

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@asenderling.eth

Is it unusual though? Everyone knew the "Day of Liberation" was coming the following week. I bought UVXY calls right around that time, anticipating the craziness of the tariffs. Doesn't take a genius to predict Trump would be crazy/dumb and rattle markets.

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@asenderling.eth

Rarely do I take Trump at face value, but the reason I feel so strongly that the strategy is over-estimated is precisely due to the confusion. The fog of war is not just between the US and China, it's persistent through the Cabinet as they awkwardly laugh and flounder providing mixed answers. If you wanted to approach a trade war, why would you not only deeply confuse your own people, but also confuse and harm your allies? Why would we not be on the same page with the EU and SE Asia partners to tackle China in a unified manner? I struggle to fathom a reality in which this is a well thought out, strategic approach to combatting China. There is no theory that sufficiently explains it imo apart from the theory that Trump and Navarro are out of their depth and utter fools.

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Alex pfp

@asenderling.eth

I don't agree that this is all about China. They're getting the most attention because they're fighting, but he's not intentionally singling them out in any way. He is openly saying he would be willing to treat our allies and trade partners just the same if they retaliate.

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@asenderling.eth

It's trying to make sense of a fool's logic. You only make yourself look like a fool in trying to rationalize it when he demonstrates his irrationality.

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@asenderling.eth

I wish I could get this point across more succinctly. Everyone is over-estimating Trump. This is *not* a well thought out plan. This is *not* something countries can solve by negotiating. It's a fundamental misunderstanding of macro economics and trade that no one is getting through to Trump on.

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@asenderling.eth

The problem with this thinking, is that the Trump admin has no clear path to negotiation. There is no consistency, they say they want fair trade and an elimination of trade deficits which makes no sense whatsoever. We're giving the admin far too much credit. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crm332189djo

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@asenderling.eth

Yeah it just seems that Russia likes to use these meetings as a way of trying to gain concessions on Sanctions. Maybe that's conspiratorial but there's decent cause for scrutiny imo

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@asenderling.eth

So what's there to talk about? My bet is that it's going to be about removing sanctions and improving trade, and somehow they'll continue to avoid tariffs for bs, inconsistent reasons...

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@asenderling.eth

Not saying you're making this argument, but this to me just reads like the 4D Chess argument that has never been validated imo. If you wanted to successfully navigate a trade war with China, it seems to be that it would be incredibly foolish not to have shored up support with your allies in the EU and SE Asia.

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@asenderling.eth

If it is a negotiating tactic, why not have some kind of consistent message on it? Right now we have Cabinet members and Trump flailing around giving mixed messages on what the goal is and whether this is negotiable or not. Vietnam tried to respond, offering to take away tariffs and got shut down.

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Irina Liakh 🎩

gm. we got a ballistic missile threat in most regions now. just another regular day in Ukraine with russian terror 😤

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@asenderling.eth

I think you're probably correct, I'm just holding onto a sliver of hope that there's still time to step back from the edge. But agreed that things are already breaking

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@asenderling.eth

If you bother to listen to Trump and his advisors, it becomes immediately clear there is no actual plan on this, because if there was, there would be a coherent and consistent message. There's no making sense of it beyond Trump having total conviction in his vibes-based understanding of tariffs. It's horrifying.

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Murtaza Hussain

Literally in one day Trump brought tariffs back to their highest level in over 100 years. This behavior is reckless and indefensible — even if you want to radically reform the economy this kind of shock therapy on the American population itself is insane. Really serious problems ahead.

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