The tariff game theory seems akin to “if you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a ball”

In a complex and interconnected financial system, throwing a massive spanner in the works will filter out nations that can survive vs those that can’t

The latter need to strike a deal urgently, giving the disruptor leverage

The problem with this thinking, is that the Trump admin has no clear path to negotiation. There is no consistency, they say they want fair trade and an elimination of trade deficits which makes no sense whatsoever. We're giving the admin far too much credit.

The problem with this thinking, is that the Trump admin has no clear path to negotiation. There is no consistency, they say they want fair trade and an elimination of trade deficits which makes no sense whatsoever. We're giving the admin far too much credit. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crm332189djo

Coinbase employee (Investigatooor), personal account. Onchain is the future.

I agree with you, I don't think the tactics are very clear. But the endgame is, which is to use America's main source of leverage (consumption) to bring to heel its main adversary

Everyone else is collateral damage, and unfortunately that includes Vietnam

I don't agree that this is all about China. They're getting the most attention because they're fighting, but he's not intentionally singling them out in any way. He is openly saying he would be willing to treat our allies and trade partners just the same if they retaliate.

Rarely do I take Trump at face value, but the reason I feel so strongly that the strategy is over-estimated is precisely due to the confusion. 

The fog of war is not just between the US and China, it's persistent through the Cabinet as they awkwardly laugh and flounder providing mixed answers. If you wanted to approach a trade war, why would you not only deeply confuse your own people, but also confuse and harm your allies? Why would we not be on the same page with the EU and SE Asia partners to tackle China in a unified manner? 

I struggle to fathom a reality in which this is a well thought out, strategic approach to combatting China. There is no theory that sufficiently explains it imo apart from the theory that Trump and Navarro are out of their depth and utter fools.

You're assuming that Trump means what he says, and says what he means

The reality is closer to what you described -- everyone is either over-estimating or under-estimating this strategy. That's by design because a fog of war is advantageous to the instigator