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Ansgar
@ansgar.eth
Polymarket Trump odds do seem a bit high. I just bought additional $1000 worth of Kamala shares at 35.4%. Seems +EV. Although of course chances are the market indeed knows better than me.
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xh3b4sd ↑
@xh3b4sd.eth
So the thing is losing is not +EV. What makes you believe that Harris wins? Odds aside. Why do you play like that?
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Ansgar
@ansgar.eth
Oh I don't (necessarily) believe she will win! Just that as of this very moment, her odds are better than 35% to do so. I similarly had a pretty large Trump position when his odds were at 45% a few weeks ago, because that seemed clearly undervalued. Then I exited that position (at a profit) as the odds swung.
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@xh3b4sd.eth
I guess I understand now what you are doing there. You are a player without any interest in the final result of the market. You are a trader extracting value without any consideration for, in that case, election day. I am building Uvio to counter exactly this extractive behaviour. Because I think whatever is happening on Polymarket is not a public good in the sense that it helps anyone apart from extracting value. I am not judging you in that respect. Just tried to articulate my thinking.
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ReplyFan
@137
Is there any more sites like this where u could buy both sides when odds are out of wack like trump 60 Kamala 35? Either way I just think Kamala has 0 chance personally but if u could hedge immediately buying both sides on different sites it makes sense
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