Ansgar's Ramblings

Polymarket Trump odds do seem a bit high. I just bought additional $1000 worth of Kamala shares at 35.4%. Seems +EV. Although of course chances are the market indeed knows better than me.

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Oh I don't (necessarily) believe she will win! Just that as of this very moment, her odds are better than 35% to do so.

I similarly had a pretty large Trump position when his odds were at 45% a few weeks ago, because that seemed clearly undervalued. Then I exited that position (at a profit) as the odds swung.

So the thing is losing is not +EV. What makes you believe that Harris wins? Odds aside. Why do you play like that?

Seems like it should converge closer to Election Day and you can sell for a profit

Of course they don’t know better than you. Nobody does. With elections, there are no insiders with privileged knowledge about the outcome. The only measurable parameter we have are the polls, and Polymarket odds are way off there.

there was a news article the other day saying foreign buyers were tipping the odds

Maybe some of the people buying aren't supporters, but diehard opponents who want to earn some "flee the country" money if he wins? It's like a hedge on real world events instead of a prediction.