Ansgar's Ramblings

Polymarket Trump odds do seem a bit high. I just bought additional $1000 worth of Kamala shares at 35.4%. Seems +EV. Although of course chances are the market indeed knows better than me.

Ethereum protocol R&D. Admirer of emergent order.

So the thing is losing is not +EV. What makes you believe that Harris wins? Odds aside. Why do you play like that?

This is the alt account of Sister Hazel. Writings at https://powerlaw.systems. Building https://testnet.uvio.network. 

Oh I don't (necessarily) believe she will win! Just that as of this very moment, her odds are better than 35% to do so.

I similarly had a pretty large Trump position when his odds were at 45% a few weeks ago, because that seemed clearly undervalued. Then I exited that position (at a profit) as the odds swung.

I guess I understand now what you are doing there. You are a player without any interest in the final result of the market. You are a trader extracting value without any consideration for, in that case, election day.

I am building Uvio to counter exactly this extractive behaviour. Because I think whatever is happening on Polymarket is not a public good in the sense that it helps anyone apart from extracting value.

I am not judging you in that respect. Just tried to articulate my thinking.

unfortunately may not act as you expect
tbc.radio // myradius.live

Based on the behaviour described above, we still don't know more about the future outcome of the election, which is the narrative being sold to retail.

I do not want to make this a big thing, but if Ethereum researchers show their true colours by extracting value from prediction markets, without helping to find signal, while those same researchers try to change the ETH issuance for obscure reasons, then I start to lose faith in this whole experiment.

Generally, I do not care about systems that only facilitate value extraction. It often sounds like Pump Fun and Polymarket cater to the same players without creating lasting value. 

I am interested in finding signals by surfacing competence and integrity, which is what I am trying to do with Uvio. What matters to human progress is competence and integrity, not value extraction.

If anyone thinks Polymarket works as intended, then those people can keep playing there. It's PvP. I don't mind. This is not the game I want to play.

I’m curious, who or what do you believe they’re extracting value from?

To me it seems they’re playing the game exactly as intended.