0xen 🎩
@0xen
as many people are saying, polymarket wasn’t more accurate than polls in 2020, it got it wrong. less people used it but also less weird money trying to manipulate it
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andrei
@andreitr.eth
My hunch is that 'normies' are underrepresented on Polymarket, which skews the bias towards Trump.
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Goldy
@goldytalks
still don’t understand what you mean by “got it wrong”.
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BKim
@brittkim.eth
I don’t follow him either.
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J. Valeska 🦊🎩🫂
@jvaleska.eth
not true?! checking your last cast about satoshi, feels like having money in the game attracts more market manipulators 🤔
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ns
@nickysap
I don’t understand why this is being used to represent nationwide sentiment when Americans aren’t even technically allowed to use the platform 🤔
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max 🎩🚂
@baseddesigner.eth
it's almost 6% now people are pouring a lot of money in recently 2020 was a really small difference, market couldn't have predicted the outcome on it
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Thumbs Up
@thumbsup.eth
Isn’t a fairly betting popular strategy to take the long shot? Does Polymarket counter this by not having odds? Like for example if the prize is not based on odds but rather total value of the votes, then wouldn’t that lead to bandwagoning? I just don’t see how this is “accurate” in any sense of the word. The problem with polling is small sample size. But the people you ask are literally telling you who they’re voting for, so it’s as “accurate” as any self-reporting can be.
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nomygod
@nomygod.eth
i actually remember thinking this strat was solid in 2016 too but it was off, hillary being favored to win by a lot. (there were betting markets before polymarket, usually those casino type sites)
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