Economics

there is no [obvious] substitute for the US consumer — if Trump succeeds in eliminating the goods deficit, the impact on financial flows and surplus nation manufacturing assets will be massive

personally agree and might go so far as to say a goods deficit is generally good / a sign of an advanced economy

at the end of the day, the flows always balance (goods+services+financial). We export a lot of services and attract a lot of financial capital today, unwinding that will be painful

I think the steelman is supply chain fragility / national security. There's definitely some truth to this, like when china briefly shut down mask exports during covid, which would obviously be much worse if there was direct conflict. But.. I don't know that it should be domestic vs just in "allied" nations (and not really sure how that's feasible either tbh)

complicated all around, no answers afaik

goods deficit = importing more [physical] goods than exporting

i don't actually believe it should be eliminated, but it's complicated

This is the alt account of Sister Hazel. Writings at https://powerlaw.systems.

goods deficit = importing more [physical] goods than exporting

i don't actually believe it should be eliminated, but it's complicated https://warpcast.com/w/0x9cedfbfe

Could you explain what the goods deficit is and how it ought to be eliminated?

design OKX • former NFTX • /coyg /football

still unclear why a goods deficit is bad. excess capital typically flows back to the US right?

I think it's more likely it creates a de-facto "free trade" system, as countries reduce their US tariffs in response

China is the biggest one playing this like a real poker match

hm I wonder if EA is actually supposed to be EU? not sure, nice catch

hm I wonder if EA is actually supposed to be EU? not sure, nice catch

https://www.cfr.org/blog/evolution-global-trade-2024

What metric would make a good prediction market on?