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will
@w
there is no [obvious] substitute for the US consumer — if Trump succeeds in eliminating the goods deficit, the impact on financial flows and surplus nation manufacturing assets will be massive
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jb
@jtb
still unclear why a goods deficit is bad. excess capital typically flows back to the US right?
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will
@w
personally agree and might go so far as to say a goods deficit is generally good / a sign of an advanced economy at the end of the day, the flows always balance (goods+services+financial). We export a lot of services and attract a lot of financial capital today, unwinding that will be painful I think the steelman is supply chain fragility / national security. There's definitely some truth to this, like when china briefly shut down mask exports during covid, which would obviously be much worse if there was direct conflict. But.. I don't know that it should be domestic vs just in "allied" nations (and not really sure how that's feasible either tbh) complicated all around, no answers afaik
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