Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
This week in Gell-Mann Amnesia https://i.imgur.com/JVyDZQC.png
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timdaub pfp
timdaub
@timdaub.eth
The thing is, you cannot expect Sacks, a lucker than won the Monte Carlo simulation, to understand how chance works within a population. If he accepted that, he‘d be aware that he contributed nothing to where he‘s at in his life.
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Andrew pfp
Andrew
@andrewmassa
Founded Yammer (a unicorn) and was the coo of PayPal, but “contributed nothing to where he’s at in his life”?
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timdaub pfp
timdaub
@timdaub.eth
Yeah, do you understand Taleb‘s point about Survivorship bias?
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Andrew pfp
Andrew
@andrewmassa
Isn’t the survivorship bias he is referencing David using the companies that survived, Google etc…, to prove his point? What does that have to do with David’s own track record?
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timdaub pfp
timdaub
@timdaub.eth
Yes, here's how I connect em. Sacks is one of those few metaphorical airplanes returning unshot from the front. Few, because all others who got downed are buried on a giant graveyard. If we say: "Let's imitate Sacks, check is track record," we're ignoring the others that haven't made it and Sacks' future blowup risk.
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Andrew
@andrewmassa
Maybe, I guess two massively successful companies to me makes me feel the guy might know something about business. I think the survivorship bias was David listing the companies that he listed but he also said it was a partial list. Obviously there are more in the graveyard than aren’t but VC returns 25% on average.
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timdaub
@timdaub.eth
Those 25% yields are returned in a power law shape. A LOT of capital goes to waste and then it is all made back by a few investments. Individuals' contribution don't matter much. A serial lottery winner also doesn't know more about the lottery than us. Relative to our wealth: David Sacks isn't a 1000x smarter than us.
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Andrew
@andrewmassa
Sure, I get that and I am not arguing that VC is filled with highly skilled investors. I am arguing that David Sacks contributed to where he is at in life. I was just pointing out that you were selling the guy short of what he is. I have no clue how he does as a VC.
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