This week in Gell-Mann Amnesia

 https://i.imgur.com/JVyDZQC.png

The thing is, you cannot expect Sacks, a lucker than won the Monte Carlo simulation, to understand how chance works within a population. If he accepted that, he‘d be aware that he contributed nothing to where he‘s at in his life.

Founder /kiwi-news, a decentralized Hacker News

Founded Yammer (a unicorn) and was the coo of PayPal, but “contributed nothing to where he’s at in his life”?

Yeah, do you understand Taleb‘s point about Survivorship bias?

Yes, here's how I connect em. Sacks is one of those few metaphorical airplanes returning unshot from the front. Few, because all others who got downed are buried on a giant graveyard. If we say: "Let's imitate Sacks, check is track record," we're ignoring the others that haven't made it and Sacks' future blowup risk.

Isn’t the survivorship bias he is referencing David using the companies that survived, Google etc…, to prove his point? 

What does that have to do with David’s own track record?