What is the best resource going deep into what parts of history were “predetermined” (IOW, had an obvious “adjacent possible” for the taking) vs. what parts were relatively unlikely or a product of luck ?

(summer of) protocol {support | guild | fellowship} ☀️


Closest thing I can think of from the top of my head is Why Nations Fail. It's a book about power structures across history. The argument in there is that extractive institutions are the reasons that nation states go down in flames eventually.

https://github.com/xh3b4sd/content/blob/master/book%2F2024%2F0000187

There is also The Art of War and Governance. This one is more about US attempts of nation building experiments, which frankly only were successful after world war two. If you are interested in power structures within the US military you can checkout this one.

https://github.com/xh3b4sd/content/blob/master/book%2F2024%2F0000189

I think that's the eye of the beholder. maybe it's all luck, in the light of perfect information.

maybe something like Gibson's "Decline & Fall of the Roman Empire"