I wish our culture was better at honestly expressing our level of uncertainty, and being okay and encouraging of other people doing the same. Having widely-understood ways to say "based on what I know now, I think X, but this is a preliminary opinion and I am super-willing to adjust based on new arguments or evidence".

certainty is a proxy for confidence

confidence is a proxy for competence

**i believe these incentives are hard to break

See also: Julia Galef's Scout Mindset.

But yeah, it's hard to go from just saying this to getting people to truly understand it in practice.

build, lift, & coffee | ENS Steward | namestone.xyz | slobo.xyz

Interesting! The author frames it like a "bet", implying a financial bet. But, from Elon's quote, I don't think he sees it as a "bet", more as something important to do in and of itself. In that sense, I feel the term "Scout Mindset" encompasses Elon's view better (I think).