Vitalik Buterin pfp
Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
I wish our culture was better at honestly expressing our level of uncertainty, and being okay and encouraging of other people doing the same. Having widely-understood ways to say "based on what I know now, I think X, but this is a preliminary opinion and I am super-willing to adjust based on new arguments or evidence".
30 replies
80 recasts
395 reactions
Vitalik Buterin pfp
Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
I've seen ideas for conlangs that include a mandatory tense-like inflection for either "this is why I think what I'm saying" or "I think this with [high / medium / low] confidence". Would be interesting to import into English.
3 replies
0 recast
17 reactions
slobo pfp
slobo
@slobo.eth
certainty is a proxy for confidence confidence is a proxy for competence **i believe these incentives are hard to break
1 reply
0 recast
5 reactions
Cassie Heart pfp
Cassie Heart
@cassie
[strong|weak] opinion, [loosely|strongly] held
2 replies
0 recast
3 reactions
polynya pfp
polynya
@polynya
There are a ton of misguided analogies doing the rounds in crypto, which leads to unfounded entitlement, ignoring evidence. I wish crypto would focus on the things that have actually proven to provide value to people, rather than wasting more billions on things proven to have negligible demand (aside from bagholders).
1 reply
0 recast
7 reactions
vaughn tan pfp
vaughn tan
@vt
working on better frameworks for thinking about and expressing different forms of uncertainty rn: https://vaughntan.org/notknowing
0 reply
1 recast
3 reactions
Gabriel Ayuso pfp
Gabriel Ayuso
@gabrielayuso.eth
That's the dream. Don't get why people want every statement they say to come out as if they know what they're talking about. Confidence is overrated, we need more modesty.
2 replies
0 recast
4 reactions
Mac Budkowski ᵏ pfp
Mac Budkowski ᵏ
@macbudkowski
💯 an even lower bar would teach people to start their claims with "I think", "In my opinion", "I guess" etc. it's the easiest way to reduce the amount of conflict and tension during the discussion.
0 reply
0 recast
2 reactions
nicholas 🧨 pfp
nicholas 🧨
@nicholas
Unfortunate that absolute statements and inflammatory questions perform better than nuance and honest questions in social media
0 reply
0 recast
2 reactions
Bixbite 👽 pfp
Bixbite 👽
@bixbite
I like to state my opinion then end it with ‘but I could be wrong’ that way if someone wants to present evidence against it’s more of a learning experience vs a debate 🤓
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Liang @ degencast.wtf 🎩 pfp
Liang @ degencast.wtf 🎩
@degencast.eth
this is kinda like the opposite of fake it until you make it...
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
billzh pfp
billzh
@billzh
Always be 10% less certain than you actually are
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Sam (crazy candle person) ✦ pfp
Sam (crazy candle person) ✦
@samantha
Us humans don’t do well with uncertainty 🤷🏻 And we have trouble even admitting it to ourselves, because of our egos
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Nelson M. Rosario pfp
Nelson M. Rosario
@nelsonmrosario
Isn't this more so a language as an idea expression mechanism fault than a cultural shortcoming?
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Joshua Hyde pfp
Joshua Hyde
@jrh3k5.eth
In a similar vein, I've had people observe with amusement that, when they ask if I have questions, I always reply with, "Not at this time." It's because I often don't know what I don't know, which means I'll likely have questions later on.
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
six pfp
six
@six
This is why we say “imo”
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
kbc pfp
kbc
@kbc
Bayesian thinking isn’t widespread
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Henry pfp
Henry
@hlau
I love confidence intervals. Sad thing is that AI models as they are currently constructed can’t really produce them. Let’s hope a war doesn’t start with a hallucination.
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Sally pfp
Sally
@sallyh
Humans prefer to be right rather than curious.
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
KP pfp
KP
@kpx
Imo Probability is such a misunderstood concept. If probability of something happening is low, it doesn't mean that it can't happen. It need to be worked on to increase its chance of occurance.
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction