Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
I wish our culture was better at honestly expressing our level of uncertainty, and being okay and encouraging of other people doing the same. Having widely-understood ways to say "based on what I know now, I think X, but this is a preliminary opinion and I am super-willing to adjust based on new arguments or evidence".
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slobo
@slobo.eth
certainty is a proxy for confidence confidence is a proxy for competence **i believe these incentives are hard to break
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Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
See also: Julia Galef's Scout Mindset. But yeah, it's hard to go from just saying this to getting people to truly understand it in practice.
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Jeff Lau
@jefflau.eth
Yeah this is an interesting take that I’ve developed from playing poker. It’s +EV in the long run to make those kind of bets if you manage your bankroll correctly. I’d argue building Ethereum was the same kind of bet, albeit with mostly your time rather money
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DuckTape 🎩
@ducktape
I think with low confidence that these comments made by Elon is coming from a person who studied charisma and he does not genuinely believe in it nor his behaviour is driven by altruistic intentions
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Thibauld
@thibauld
Interesting! The author frames it like a "bet", implying a financial bet. But, from Elon's quote, I don't think he sees it as a "bet", more as something important to do in and of itself. In that sense, I feel the term "Scout Mindset" encompasses Elon's view better (I think).
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jmon.eth
@jmon
Nice, Galef’s conception seems like a useful, generalizable framework for working in reality on reality terms. Thanks for sharing
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