politics

polls were still more accurate than prediction markets lmao

because knowing is finding the limits /bettik founder /outercorps stalwart

This isn’t how prediction markets work. Prediction markets are never accurate until the moment they are accurate. Insider information always prevails and 99%% of the time a prediction market will show true accurate results prior to resolution. Polls are not even worth discussing as a data point, not relevant to reality.

growth @teller coming soon @clarity





























































hosting /kieran /usdc /loans 

that's the whole point. "prediction" markets (event markets actually) are like futures markets - they aren't actually intended to predict anything, they are intended for financial purposes which is precisely why "prediction markets are never accurate until the moment they are accurate" and not good for actually predicting anything

right. i am agreeing with you. personally i like event markets - i used one this election cycle - for financial purposes. they are a great way to hedge. i took out a position opposite of what i thought would actually happen as a hedge to other investments.

the point is that if you're trying to predict something, go to the source, not the financial markets that are intended to be used for more than predicting the future and therefore will be more volatile and less accurate at foretelling the future

(the "source" being voters in the case of elections, points of commodity production & demand in the case of commodity futures markets)

The term prediction market is based on the act of people predicting what they think will happen, not that the market itself is predicting it.