politics

polls were still more accurate than prediction markets lmao

because knowing is finding the limits /bettik founder /outercorps stalwart

This isn’t how prediction markets work. Prediction markets are never accurate until the moment they are accurate. Insider information always prevails and 99%% of the time a prediction market will show true accurate results prior to resolution. Polls are not even worth discussing as a data point, not relevant to reality.

growth @teller coming soon @clarity





























































hosting /kieran /usdc /loans 

The term prediction market is based on the act of people predicting what they think will happen, not that the market itself is predicting it.

that's the whole point. "prediction" markets (event markets actually) are like futures markets - they aren't actually intended to predict anything, they are intended for financial purposes which is precisely why "prediction markets are never accurate until the moment they are accurate" and not good for actually predicting anything