politics

polls were still more accurate than prediction markets lmao

because knowing is finding the limits /bettik founder /outercorps stalwart

vast majority of polls were very stable at calling the states just on either side of the line. prediction markets were extremely volatile. only useful for financial purposes

Not really. Market overreacted to Selzer outlier. Prediction markets trailing 7 day average was ahead of all the polls.

growth @teller coming soon @clarity





























































hosting /kieran /usdc /loans 

that's the whole point. "prediction" markets (event markets actually) are like futures markets - they aren't actually intended to predict anything, they are intended for financial purposes which is precisely why "prediction markets are never accurate until the moment they are accurate" and not good for actually predicting anything

This isn’t how prediction markets work. Prediction markets are never accurate until the moment they are accurate. Insider information always prevails and 99%% of the time a prediction market will show true accurate results prior to resolution. Polls are not even worth discussing as a data point, not relevant to reality.