skininthegame

What are some examples of prediction markets getting it wrong? 
E.g. prediction markets believed Hillary would win the 2016 US presidential election. 

Trying to build a comprehensive list of examples. 

Also curious as to strong counter-examples I.e. prediction markets were right & contrary to the “professionals”

I would like to see the efficacy of polymarket for once. I haven't been able to find a way to automate insights for whether the betting majority was actually able to predict the outcome. 

Manual counts have not been conclusive and rather random.

This is the alt account of Sister Hazel. Writings at https://powerlaw.systems. Building https://testnet.uvio.network. 

Would also like to see this data, if it exists anywhere