skininthegame

What are some examples of prediction markets getting it wrong? 
E.g. prediction markets believed Hillary would win the 2016 US presidential election. 

Trying to build a comprehensive list of examples. 

Also curious as to strong counter-examples I.e. prediction markets were right & contrary to the “professionals”

I help run the /daos channel |
Head of Product & Governance at DecentDAO |
Gamer, Sountrack fan & dog owner|
2 exits, 1 failure |
https://linktr.ee/tommy.stuart

Will share the list on Warpcast if it ends up being worthwhile

Let me pull some I've found.

Any chance your going to open source the list when your done? Would love to see them

This is the alt account of Sister Hazel. Writings at https://powerlaw.systems. Building https://testnet.uvio.network. 

Would also like to see this data, if it exists anywhere

I would like to see the efficacy of polymarket for once. I haven't been able to find a way to automate insights for whether the betting majority was actually able to predict the outcome. 

Manual counts have not been conclusive and rather random.

They don't predict yes/no win/lose, they give a probability. So you actually want to see was the last 100000 elections that predicted to XYZ a win with a 60% odds and compare it with a real outcomes. Anything below/above 60% will be either a failure of traders either measurement error.