skininthegame

What are some examples of prediction markets getting it wrong? 
E.g. prediction markets believed Hillary would win the 2016 US presidential election. 

Trying to build a comprehensive list of examples. 

Also curious as to strong counter-examples I.e. prediction markets were right & contrary to the “professionals”

is it more correct to view an efficient prediction market as a mechanism to provide accurate probabilities for outcomes, rather than predicting binary outcomes? 

e.g. prediction markets correctly assigned Trump a <50% probability of winning the 2016 election.

dev, armchair economist & crypto tea leaves reader - 

/futarchy /network-states x.com/nicovrg_




And if so, what is the implication for conditional markets i.e. futarchy? @nicovrg

Hmm. This makes sense but doesn’t answer the question I’m trying to articulate

Another way stating this: should we expect conditional markets to “get it wrong” some % of the time? If so, is there a correlation between the pass v. fail market prices and the probability the “worse” proposal passes

to me prediction markets have an evaluation "resolution" that reward people who were right whereas conditional market protect holders & allow them to express their desire depending of proposal result

example ->