skininthegame

What are some examples of prediction markets getting it wrong? 
E.g. prediction markets believed Hillary would win the 2016 US presidential election. 

Trying to build a comprehensive list of examples. 

Also curious as to strong counter-examples I.e. prediction markets were right & contrary to the “professionals”

is it more correct to view an efficient prediction market as a mechanism to provide accurate probabilities for outcomes, rather than predicting binary outcomes? 

e.g. prediction markets correctly assigned Trump a <50% probability of winning the 2016 election.

dev, armchair economist & crypto tea leaves reader - 

/futarchy /network-states x.com/nicovrg_




And if so, what is the implication for conditional markets i.e. futarchy? @nicovrg