I don't think big tech layoffs are because the companies got bloated, it's because rates went up. 

If the ROI (including opportunity cost of capital) on a marginal hire is positive they should be hired. 

As rates increase the opportunity cost of capital increases so this calculation changes.

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Good analysis. It does seem like backwards logic, though: companies should be spending to accumulate talent during the bad times to heavily reinvest back into the product; consequently, they should spend free dollars for marketing the product during the good times.

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Marketing is just one way to grow. For some companies, so is building (or optimizing) product. 

Also, for mature companies, the goal probably shouldn’t be to accumulate talent. For startups/high growth companies the calculus is different.