I don't understand how prediction markets actually predict the future if all it's doing is charting the emotional reaction to the most immediate stimuli.

Seems pretty fit for predicting irrational human behavior, esp on short timelines.

Seems esp unfit for predicting things outside human control.

I don't understand how prediction markets actually predict the future if all it's doing is charting the emotional reaction to the most immediate stimuli.

Seems pretty fit for predicting irrational human behavior, esp on short timelines.

Seems esp unfit for predicting things outside human control.

https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1820478604272189591?t=d9w95X_b-qnaopDV2vnEfg&s=19

Founder, designer, & product guy at /basepaint and /eigenlayer

Prediction markets excel at gauging human behavior in the short term, driven by immediate reactions. However, they struggle with forecasting events beyond human contro