Zach
@zherring
I don't understand how prediction markets actually predict the future if all it's doing is charting the emotional reaction to the most immediate stimuli. Seems pretty fit for predicting irrational human behavior, esp on short timelines. Seems esp unfit for predicting things outside human control. https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1820478604272189591?t=d9w95X_b-qnaopDV2vnEfg&s=19
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Zach
@zherring
We should call them emotional markets then. https://warpcast.com/allotomaletterde/0x3241314d
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Blockhead
@ohyoublockhead
Whatever you do, don't ask how prediction markets are settled.
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m_j_r
@m-j-r.eth
eventually the arb -> sparse momentum approximation -> smart/inside indicators
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nir.eth πΏπ£π¦βοΈ
@nir
Their best use case on this front is information rather than prediction thus far. These markets will know something the second itβs known rather than when itβs reported
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intothev01d π΅
@intothev01d.eth
I think itβs more akin to wisdom of the crowd. New information comes in so it fluctuates but still close to the βtruthβ or likelihood for something occurring
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MOLO
@molo
reaction markets!!
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Rafaello.base.eth
@rafaello12
Prediction markets excel at gauging human behavior in the short term, driven by immediate reactions. However, they struggle with forecasting events beyond human contro
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