Gray Tribe

if news sources had reported their predictions as a % rather than a binary "this will/wont happen", do you think @polymarket would still get this much hype?

building /cabin (cabin.city). founder of LBRY.com, odysee.com, vibe.camp, @farcon. more at grin.io

They do with polls….but things become a hell of a lot more accurate when there is $$ at risk….thats why @polymarket matters and is relevant. People don’t lie when they have skin in the game

skin in the game or STFU

imho study Hanson (betting on beliefs)

Learning what I can.  Human and dog dad.  Enjoying the land of ham, tophats and the next new thing I missed already by not being online every hour of the day.

skin in the game or STFU

imho study Hanson (betting on beliefs) http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy2007.pdf

hope vitalik writes a sequel to his 2021 post on the prediction markets, too:

hope vitalik writes a sequel to his 2021 post on the prediction markets, too:

https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2021/02/18/election.html