I am generally optimistic about technology, but what if AI is in the exact same spot that VR was when Palmer Lucky launched the Rift?

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It’s more likely that crypto is in that spot :)

I’m way more optimistic about AI. 

Yeah could be either one or neither honestly. It’s just interesting to think about the hype when Occulus was finally bringing VR to the masses. That hype has resulted in a very niche industry that never really took off or did what people thought.

Absolutely. I think I’m more getting at the plateau of usefulness. I don’t know where that plateau will be though.

sound like you're describing crypto. 
with ai, sure there'e hype, but at least there's been regular progress with real use cases that are actually useful to lots of people.

i think VR is still coming, and i think it's because apple and microsoft want to build mixed reality experience that feel like in-person social

meta is extremely competitive in the tech department and with retail, but aren't regarded as "business" tech so they won't take off there, and Microsoft will push it on everyone with Teams as their solution to the remote work problem, with heavily subsidized introductory hardware that big biz will purchase as a one-time instead of a recurring lease on office space, and