I am generally optimistic about technology, but what if AI is in the exact same spot that VR was when Palmer Lucky launched the Rift?

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It’s more likely that crypto is in that spot :)

I’m way more optimistic about AI. 

sound like you're describing crypto. 
with ai, sure there'e hype, but at least there's been regular progress with real use cases that are actually useful to lots of people.

Yeah could be either one or neither honestly. It’s just interesting to think about the hype when Occulus was finally bringing VR to the masses. That hype has resulted in a very niche industry that never really took off or did what people thought.