skininthegame

Prediction markets have resonated with me since I started in crypto 12 yrs ago. It was initially bc I was a degen & wanted quick cash. Now I’m using prediction markets daily not to bet but as an info consumer to better understand the world.

Augur, Veil & others failed. Polymarket now working. How can we accelerate?

The stock market is a prediction market on the future value of companies, and it’s often irrational and inaccurate, especially around emotionally charged topics.

Won’t prediction markets suffer the same fate?

Technowatermelon. Elder Millenial. Building Farcaster. 

nf.td/varun

yep. plus they can only be used to predict observables, not answer qs about latent variables (e.g. what's the best tax policy?)

But I do think they can be a useful tool to triangulate what's true. they have biases that are different from other information sources

The only problem is externality pricing.

Building https://negationgame.com

negationgame

20. hacking @ https://www.spire.dev/ 
previously intern Nethermind, epns.io

broadly, the way to do markets for counterfactual reasoning is to create a mechanism for agreeing on models of the world

We once discussed prediction markets for counterfactuals (how long would WW2 last had enigma not be broken)

Think answering latent variables has the same problems as that - no clear objective way to resolve