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Nick Tomaino🎩
@nick
Prediction markets have resonated with me since I started in crypto 12 yrs ago. It was initially bc I was a degen & wanted quick cash. Now I’m using prediction markets daily not to bet but as an info consumer to better understand the world. Augur, Veil & others failed. Polymarket now working. How can we accelerate?
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Varun Srinivasan
@v
The stock market is a prediction market on the future value of companies, and it’s often irrational and inaccurate, especially around emotionally charged topics. Won’t prediction markets suffer the same fate?
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Nick Tomaino🎩
@nick
Yes markets will always be irrational at times. Price is info - often imperfect, but useful info. The promise in creating global markets for anything is allowing people with knowledge on any topic to contribute with skin in the game. Doing so won’t always provide perfect truth, but I think it will provide more truth
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Connor McCormick ☀️
@nor
yep. plus they can only be used to predict observables, not answer qs about latent variables (e.g. what's the best tax policy?) But I do think they can be a useful tool to triangulate what's true. they have biases that are different from other information sources
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Ayush
@ayushm.eth
The difference imo is that prediction markets have a hard date on which they resolve, the sentiment of the market doesn't matter on that day, the truth does. So you would expect people to actually answer the question x instead of "how everyone else feels about x"
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Syed Shah🏴☠️🌊
@syed
Probably because the stock market is a poorly designed prediction market if your goal was to create a prediction market. Says more about stock market than prediction markets that it works so poorly as one I think.
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